Draft Gore 2008 PAC

My column, "Clinton and Obama on Aljazeera," is just out in Salon.com.

It is based in part on an interview I did with the editor-in-chief of Aljazeera during my recent trip to Qatar.

Excerpt:

' Many Americans incorrectly think of Al-Jazeera's Arabic-language network as al-Qaida Central because it occasionally broadcasts excerpts from videotapes of the terror organization's leaders. Nowadays, however, viewers are far more likely to see images of the American presidential candidates on the channel's screens. As the United States, always an interested party, has become a dominant on-the-ground player in the Middle East, residents of the region increasingly feel that their own fate depends on the outcome of this election. I was in Qatar earlier this month and stopped by the office of Ahmed Sheikh, editor in chief of Al-Jazeera's Arabic service, to ask him about his network's coverage of the campaign.

Al-Jazeera's Arabic service studios in the rapidly growing metropolis of Doha have been expanded but are still relatively modest. The facilities at the new English-language Al-Jazeera International across the street are far more state-of-the-art. The correspondent who welcomed me said that when Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak visited, he was taken aback by how small the studio was, remarking, "So this is the matchbox that has caused all that trouble!"

Safely delivered to Sheikh's office, I was plied with strong Arab tea. Soon our conversation turned to the U.S. presidential campaign. Why, I asked, give such distant events air time? "Because the United States is occupying Iraq and it is an ally of Israel and a power broker in the region," Sheikh replied. "The United States is the only superpower on the planet. Events in Iraq and Palestine affect this area." '

Read the whole thing.

Qatar, by the way, is a fascinating country, and is taking on some of the attributes of Dubai, though it isn't as swinging a place as the latter. It is opening its first Catholic church soon!

The Mosul operation came so unexpectedly for residents of the major northern city that they did not have time to stock up on food. Alexandra Zavis interviews Mosulis who say that they have been living in fear. What is odd is that we weren't having these stories of living in fear in Mosul 2 months ago.

Turkey bombed northern Iraq again on Sunday, retaliating against the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) for its attack on the Turkish military in Anatolia, which left two Turkish soldiers dead. The guerrillas are then alleged to have retreated into Iraq.

McClatchy reports on the precarious position of Sadr City residents whose homes are near to the Green Zone that houses the US embassy and other US offices.

How solid the ceasefire is has yet to be seen. Hadi al-Amiri, a member of parliament who is also head of the paramilitary Badr Corps, said Sunday that the Mahdi Army must disarm. (Since the Badr Army has not disarmed, this statement is the height of hypocrisy). And, PM Nuri al-Maliki maintains that the truce in Sadr City was worked out between the Iraqi parliament and the Sadrists, and that he was not part of the process.

Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that efforts to form an alternative, nationalist bloc in parliament are continuing. It hopes to include the Iraqi National List of Iyad Allawi, the Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila) and the National Dialogue Council of Salih Mutlak. The Sadrists are said to be studying the possibility of joining, but they have not so far.

For invaluable updates on the situation in Afghanistan, don't miss Barnett Rubin's recent entries at our Global Affairs blog.

Bil McKibben on the defining moment in climate change. . .

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq for Sunday:

' Baghdad

- Around 7 am, a roadside bomb exploded near the oil marketing department in Zayuna neighborhood in east Baghdad. Two civilians were injured in the blast.

- Around 9:30 am a roadside bomb targeted the deputy of the finance minister’s convoy Mr. Fadhel Mahmoud. Six people were injured in the blast.

- Police found 1 dead body in Baghdad in Saidiyah neighborhood in south Baghdad.

Kirkuk

- Saturday night, gunmen opened fire on an Iraqi soldier at Mujaibra of Rashad in west Kirkuk. The soldier was killed immediately.

- Saturday night, gunmen kidnapped a peasant at Tal Aleid of Rashad in west Kirkuk.

- In the morning, police found two dead bodies on the way between Kirkuk and Sulaimaniyah. The police found out that those two bodies belonged to two workers who were kidnapped in Khan Khorma in Kirkuk last week. '

Rex Brynen of McGill University makes a powerful argument that Hizbullah has blundered (Copied below). He is correct that the Shiite move on Sunni West Beirut has exacerbated sectarian anxieties and fears - not only Sunni fears, but Christian fears as well. Lebanon's other sects now realize how little stands between them and Hizbullah's militia.

Second, Sunnis such as Salim al-Hoss and Najib Mikati who would be expected to lead Lebanon in a compromise and who have showed themselves in the past to be willing to work with Syria even at the most trying of times, have taken an anti-Hizbullah line. This demonstrates how difficult it is for Sunnis to reach out to Hizbullah and Syria at this moment. This is not a good sign for a future compromise.

The rhetoric on all sides as grown worse than I have seen it since the civil war. Siniora has said that Hizbullah has done things that the Israelis never did when they occupied Beirut. The PPS or SSNP issued a statement that they would hold Hariri personally responsible for the killing of their people in Tripoli. Nasrallah called the Lebanese government illegal, and on it goes.

Most distressing is Rex's conclusion about the March 14 Movement's determination to ignore the implications of Hizbullah's occupation of West Beirut. In this he may well be correct. It is, after all, how March 14 responded to the Hizbullah's tent city. In essence, Siniora's government will dare Hizbullah to carry out the coup the Shiite party clearly does not want to carry out. The game of chicken will continue. Hizbullah's use of force will neither lance the boil of paralysis that has overtaken Lebanon's government, nor will it serve as a wake up call to Lebanon's bickering factions that they must compromise. That is what Rex is predicting. Here is his analysis:  

Rex Brynen wrote in the Comment Section:

It has also demonstrated that it can game out its actions and is prepared for its end-game, something that others in the region seldom seem to do.

While Nasrallah is certainly a good strategist, one is as much struck by his missteps as his successes in recent years.

First, there was the 2006 war, which Hizbullah clearly did not foresee (although it was quite foreseeable). As it turns out they secured their “divine victory” because the Israelis made even more serious mistakes, but it certainly wasn’t a triumph of strategic master thought.

Then there was the withdrawal from cabinet, and the “tent camp” siege of the government–which turned out to NOT to have the rapid and decisive effect that Hizbullah intended. Nasrallah seems to have never anticipated that he would simply be ignored, and that it would be business as usual in the Grand Serail.

Finally, there is the take-over of West Beirut. While the rather foolish and incautious cabinet decisions were the cause of this, I think it was also driven by Hizbullah’s continuing inability to leverage M14 as much as they wanted to. The withdrawal of fighters from the street (albeit, after some very thuggish behaviour by their Amal and SSNP proxies) was clearly intended to spin this all as a reluctant Hizbullah with a national agenda (rather than a sectarian move), they’ve clearly underestimated the effect in the Christian community where it has all done substantial damage to Aoun (a fact that even his most loyal deputies are privately admitting). Given that the Christian community is the only one in play–the Shiite, Sunni, and Druze communities are all pretty much solidly behind the Hizbullah/Amal, Mustaqbal, and the PSP respectively, and now even more so–the long term result could be a politically weakened M8. Ironically, this comes at a time when M14’s weak government performance were causing it some real problems with its constituents–however, events in Beirut will now counter that with a “rally around the (sectarian) flag” effect.

It is also possible that the M14 groups will now do some serious arming and training (despite all the accusations, their past efforts have been VERY limited and haphazard), probably with Saudi/Jordanian/Egyptian support–not really in Hizbullah’s long-term advantage.

Finally, what does Hizbullah do if M14 just ignores Hizbullah’s obvious preeminent military power? I suspect they’ll do exactly that: not soften on the “presidential package” (next cabinet/PM, new electoral law), leaving Hizbullah no better off than before. Indeed, given the damage M8 has taken in non-Shiite communities, in a few months it could even be in a somewhat worse position.

In short, I think this is far from being an unalloyed masterstroke of strategic brilliance.

Ex-IDF Chief: Hezbollah rule in Lebanon may help Israel beat it
By Yoav Stern and Barak Ravid, Haaretz Correspondents, Haaretz Service and Channel 10

Former IDF chief of staff Amnon Lipkin-Shahak said Sunday Hezbollah's persistent attempts to take over Lebanon could eventually benefit Israel in its struggle against the militant group.

"If an armed conflict erupts it will be simpler to strike Lebanon when Hezbollah is the legitimate ruler," Shahak told the Army Radio.

Earlier on Sunday, Israel's Vice Premier Haim Ramon told cabinet members that Lebanon must be viewed as a "Hezbollah state," after the Shiite guerilla group seized control over the western part of the Lebanese capital over the weekend.

"Lebanon has no government. It is a fiction, there is only Hezbollah," Ramon said during the weekly cabinet meeting. "Hezbollah is directly responsible for everything that happens [in Lebanon], and the organization completely controls the state."

Furious Sunnis feel betrayed by their leader
MARK MACKINNON
from Monday's Globe and Mail
May 11, 2008

…. “I blame Saad Hariri for what has happened. He practises politics in the Middle East. You need to make a militia to protect your people here, or you will be demolished,” said Talal, a 51-year-old lawyer who asked that his last name not be used. A day before, he said, Shia militiamen from the Hezbollah-allied Amal movement broke into his apartment, stealing jewellery and asking about members of Mr. Hariri's Future Movement.

While most Lebanese have kept weapons in their homes since the country's 1975-1990 civil war, the Sunnis found themselves outnumbered and underequipped on Friday as Hezbollah and its allies carried out their lightning occupation of West Beirut. “We are fighting with sticks and stones and they have Iranian weapons,” complained Abu Tariq, a Future Movement leader in Tariq al-Jadeeda. Hezbollah is backed by both Iran and Syria.

The Future Movement, so hopefully named by Mr. Hariri's peacemaker father, formed the backbone of the peaceful uprising after his assassination in 2005 that became known as the Cedar Revolution. Those protests, which drew hundreds of thousands of people into the streets, forced Syria to withdraw its soldiers from Lebanon after a 29-year stay.

That revolution lay in shambles Sunday. Even after Hezbollah and its allies withdrew their fighters from areas of West Beirut they had seized on Friday, the Shia militant group's yellow banner hung over numerous Sunni neighbourhoods, leaving no question as to who was now the power on the ground.

Despite its popularity, the Future Movement had no fighting wing that could stand up to Hezbollah or Amal. Even as the government became more deeply embroiled in the escalating political standoff with the heavily armed Hezbollah, it directed its efforts – and the funding it received from the United States and its allies in the Sunni Arab world – into building up the national army as a military counterweight.

That strategy failed last week, as the army, afraid of splitting along sectarian lines, stood aside as Hezbollah captured West Beirut and briefly made Mr. Hariri a prisoner in his own home.

With Sunni rage rising and Mr. Hariri discredited in the eyes of many, some now worry that al-Qaeda-style radical Islamists could fill the void and give deadly direction to the anti-Shia sentiment, as in Iraq….

Syria: Will the Anti-Trust Law Make a Difference?
Joshua Landis
Arab Reform Bulletin: May 2008

On April 4, Syria issued its first Competition and Anti-Trust Law (Law No 7/2008), which some observers consider a significant marker on the road from a planned to a market economy. The anti-trust legislation follows on the heels of several new laws issued over the past months, including a new commercial law, an incorporation law, and an arbitration law, replacing old ones dating to 1949. All are designed to open the way for private investment, including foreign investment, and to bring Syria into line with international legal and business practices.

Kanaan al-Ahmar, the Syrian attorney who played a large role in drafting the anti-trust law (click here for the entire text in Arabic), told editor Jihad Yazigi of The Syria Report (Syria’s top economic digest) that the Competition and Anti-Trust law has five main provisions:

• Market prices are to be set by free competition, with the exception of some specified cases. Al-Ahmar notes that until now the government set prices and issued occasional regulations to liberalize them; now it is the other way round.
• Cartels and other agreements, whether written or oral, which could disrupt free competition in the market are prohibited.
• No economic entity may abuse its dominant position in the market.
• Traders and manufacturers are prohibited from imposing minimum prices for the resale of their products/services, from selling below cost, or from disrupting supply to the market (in order to drive up prices).
• The law establishes a Competition Council that must give permission for any merger or acquisition that leads a company to hold a market share of over 30 percent for any product or service.

But no law is better than the authority that oversees and upholds it. Yazigi explains that “the text of the anti-trust law is as good and modern as any equivalent law in another country. Syria’s business environment has been significantly improved by this and the other laws promulgated recently. However, implementation will be a problem; one should not expect too much in the short-term. Most members of the body in charge of overseeing its implementation are appointed by the government. In other words, it is a very good law that will require political reform before it works as efficiently as it is meant to.”

The government will completely control the thirteen-member Competition Council that will monitor the law’s implementation. Serving at the pleasure of the prime minister, the body will include eight financial and legal experts selected by various ministers and heads of government financial commissions, three businessmen selected by the Federations of Chambers of Commerce, and two unionists, one from the General Workers Union and another from the Peasants Union.

Among the key questions about the implementation of the new law is how, if at all, it will apply to industries currently dominated by the state. One Syrian businessman, a Wall Street executive who has numerous interests in Syria, said “It is not monopolies within the private sector that bother us businessmen; it is the state monopolies. The state owns some 250 different businesses of which only eight or so are profitable. They belong to the telecom and petroleum industries. The others are almost all dogs and produce tires, beer, biscuits, bottled water, cigarettes…the list goes on. Every businessman I know wants to get into these fields; there is good money to be made, but the state has to give up its monopolies first.”

At the same time, despite their continuing frustration at the slow pace of change and continuing heavy hand of the state, many Syrian businessmen believe that the government is on the right track. “If Bashar has done one thing, he has changed some of the archaic and idiotic laws,” one businessman said. President al-Assad also has opened up several strategic industries—banking, insurance, and advertising—to private capital. Investor response in these industries has been very good. Initial public offerings (IPO) of banks entering into the Syrian market have been oversubscribed. When Bank Audi entered the Syrian market in 2005, its IPO was oversubscribed by a massive 988 percent. Fransabank, the newest entrant into Syria just had its IPO in March, which was oversubscribed by 250 percent of the value of the offering.

The success of the financial sector has whetted the appetite of regional investors. And while it is not clear how well the new anti-trust and other laws will be implemented, they are already succeeding in creating the impression that Syria has become investment friendly. Still, business people are savvy about the risks in such an uncertain environment. A recent proposal for a $50 million venture in Syria began with the caution: “This proposal is being offered to sophisticated investors who could, in the worst case, afford to sustain the loss of their entire investment.” Investing in Syria is not for the faint of heart.

Joshua Landis co-directs the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.

InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) signs agreement to develop its first property in Syria with the M.A. Kharafi Group

Dubai, 11 May 2008: InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) has signed an exclusive agreement with MAK Hotel Holdings, a member of the M.A. Kharafi Group of Kuwait, to develop an InterContinental Hotel in the Syrian capital.

Located in the city centre, the 370-room InterContinental Damascus, due for completion in 2010, will form part of the capital’s only integrated development which will include a shopping mall, cinema complex and office space.

Targeted at the luxury leisure traveller, InterContinental Damascus will be the perfect starting point for those keen to explore the areas historic sites, known to be one of the oldest continuously inhabited cities in the world.

John Bamsey, Chief Operating Officer — "Over the last few years we have witnessed a substantial increase in tourism levels to Syria; our aim is for IHG to be at the forefront of this demand for accommodation."

Mohamed Fahmy, Managing Director of MAK Hotel Holdings, commented: “This is an exciting development for our group and we are thrilled to be working alongside IHG to deliver an exceptional InterContinental branded hotel in the heart of Damascus. There is great investment potential throughout Syria and we look forward to expanding our portfolio within the region.”

DAMASCUS, May 8 (Reuters) - Worse than expected weather will plunge Syria's wheat production to a nine-year low this year and the government may use its strategic reserve to help meet domestic needs, a senior agriculture official said on Thursday.

Syria is a major food and farm commodities player in the Middle East and a traditional exporter to Egypt and Jordan.

Food security is a cornerstone of the Baath Party led government, which is confronting a U.S. led drive to isolate it after Washington imposed sanctions on Syria in 2004.

Output of wheat, which will start to be harvested next month, is expected to fall to 3 million tonnes compared to a planned 4.7 million and 4.1 million tonnes last year, Mohammad Hassan Katana told Reuters in an interview.

Production of barley will fall to 200,000 tonnes this year compared with 784,000 in 2007 and 253,000 tonnes in 1999, the lowest on record, he added.

"We have had a massive deterioration in weather conditions this year. It is one of the worst on record," said Katana, who heads statistics and planning at the Agriculture Ministry.

"Most of our production will come from irrigated areas that have been hit by lack of rain," he added.

The year started with 55 days of frost, which delayed growth of wheat and barley, and this was followed by unseasonably scorching weather in April that finished chances of harvesting areas fed by rain, he said.

Rain-fed areas account for around one third of Syria's cereal production. Rain was 40 percent below normal this year and this resulted in a 20 percent drop in yield in irrigated areas, Katana said.

This year's wheat output, expected to be the worse than the 2.5 million tonnes in 1999, will be enough to cover demand for bread but not for flour used in pastries and other food, he added.

But Katana said wheat security, a pillar of strategic policies, will remain intact due to large reserves Syria has built over the years.

"We have the strategic reserve to use in these circumstances. It has been built for such scenarios," he said.

UNHCR signs landmark accord in Syria with international NGO

US extends Syria sanctions

WASHINGTON (AFP) — President George W. Bush said Wednesday he was extending US sanctions against Syria following Washington's charge that Damascus had been building a nuclear reactor with North Korea's help.

Bush announced his decision to continue for one year a freeze on Syrian assets and the ban on the export of certain goods to Syria in an executive order and a message to the US Congress.

"I took these actions to deal with the unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States constituted by the actions of the Government of Syria," Bush said in the order. He accused Syria of "supporting terrorism … pursuing weapons of mass destruction and missile programs including the recent revelation of illicit nuclear cooperation with North Korea." The US president also said Syria was "undermining US and international efforts with respect to the stabilization and reconstruction of Iraq."

Bush initially slapped sanctions on Syria in May 2004, then extended them in April 2006 and widened them in February to target officials engaged in "public corruption," amid charges Damascus was destabilizing Iraq and Lebanon.

Last month, US national security officials presented intelligence they said showed Syria had been building a secret nuclear reactor for military ends….

Syria denied the US allegations, promised full cooperation with the UN watchdog, and accused the United States of a "campaign of lies" akin to US charges that Iraq had a weapons of mass destruction program.

Syria: Atomic Agency Seeks Answers
By REUTERS, May 8, 2008

Mohamed ElBaradei, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Brussels, said Syria had an obligation to tell his agency whether the site Israeli warplanes bombed there in September was an undeclared nuclear reactor. The government in Damascus has not granted United Nations inspectors access to the area despite several requests, diplomats say. The United States released intelligence last month that it said showed that Syria had built a reactor at the site. The Syrian government has denied the accusations.

Purchases Linked N. Korean to Syria
Pyongyang Company Funneled Reactor Parts to Damascus, Intelligence Officials Say
By Robin Wright and Joby Warrick
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, May 11, 2008; A18

When North Korean businessman Ho Jin Yun first caught the attention of German customs police in 2002, he was on a continental buying spree with a shopping list that seemed as random as it was long.

Yun, police discovered, had been crisscrossing Central Europe, amassing a bafflingly diverse collection of materials and high-tech gadgets: gas masks, electric timers, steel pipes, vacuum pumps, transformers and aluminum tubes cut to precise dimensions.

Most of these wares Yun had shipped to his company's offices in China and North Korea. But some of the goods, U.S. and European officials now say, were evidently intended for a secret project in Syria: a nuclear reactor that would be built with North Korean help, allegedly to produce plutonium for eventual use in nuclear weapons.

According to U.S. officials, European intelligence officials and diplomats, Yun's firm — Namchongang Trading, known as NCG — provided the critical link between Pyongyang and Damascus, acquiring key materials from vendors in China and probably from Europe, and secretly transferring them to a desert construction site near the Syrian town of Al Kibar.

It was the company's suspicious buying habits — and the branch office it opened in Damascus — that inadvertently contributed to the alleged reactor's discovery and later destruction in a Sept. 6 Israeli bombing raid, U.S. officials say. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Michael Mullen declined in an interview to say whether Washington helped with the raid, but he strongly endorsed it.

"The reactor which was being built was not very far from being operational and needed to be hit," Mullen said.

Only through the sights of its guns
By Zvi Bar’el
Tags: Lebanon, Hezbollah

Nasrallah’s rhetoric in the internal Lebanese dispute is not the important point, but it does once again portray Hezbollah not as an opposition organization, but as a force competing with the Lebanese army. Nasrallah comes off as someone who intends to rack up all the political achievements he feels he deserves. It seems he will not rest until the current Lebanese government is gone, to be replaced by a unity government in which his supporters have veto power over important decisions. Thus, while Israel continues to view Hezbollah as nothing but a militant organization that can be crushed by a military operation, it is ignoring the possibility that Lebanon will shortly be run by that very organization. In effect, one can say even now that the person running Lebanon’s domestic politics is Nasrallah - no less, and perhaps more so, than the government.

Seeing Hezbollah solely as an organization is quite similar to Israel seeing Hamas as an organization, while ignoring the public foundation on which both groups rely. The result is that Israel prefers to stick with counting Hezbollah’s Katyusha rockets, or Hamas’ Qassams, as the sole index of the threat those groups pose. In order to intensify the threat, Israel terms both organizations as “Iranian,” thereby fulfilling its obligation to issue an alert.

There is no argument over the fact that the amount of missiles and rockets is not just a potential threat - both organizations use them against Israeli targets. But the way that Israel has dealt with these groups thus far proves that military solutions alone are not practical. Hezbollah was not weakened by the Second Lebanon War. Instead, the war made it even stronger, both militarily and politically. And the military offensives in Gaza have not made much of an impression on Hamas, which holds the key to continued political negotiations.

In both cases, Israel has a political alternative. If it so greatly fears Iran’s expansion into the Mediterranean, Israel can advance talks with Syria, and if it is concerned by a Hamas takeover of the political process, Israel would do better to move forward with negotiations with the Palestinian Authority - or at least to create conditions in Gaza to relieve the threat posed by Hamas. Israel sees the political threat developing in Lebanon and in the territories, but is prepared to respond only through the sights of its guns.”

Shai writes: This is the kind of freedom of speech Israelis enjoy (thank god):

Let's be done with all the Talanskys 
By Gideon Levy in Haaretz

….. Revealing the identity of the primary witness, Morris Talansky, in the lastest Ehud Olmert affair raises questions that go beyond the prime minister. Serious questions need to be asked about the relationship between American Jewry and Israel.

Granted, Talansky is a mere individual, but he is not the only one. Jerusalem is full of wheeler-dealers, functionaries, lobbyists, donors and philanthropists. There are rich men and middlemen, envoys and delegations, many of them with good intentions, but some without.

They wheedle and schnorr and contribute to various causes. It's the kind of schnorring that begins with Shaare Zedek Medical Center and could end in court. The question here is why did Talansky, or any other Jewish American, invest, allegedly, in Olmert? What do they receive in exchange for this pot stirring? 

Offended said:

If HEZBOLLAH was indeed a thuggish organization with a sectarian agenda that is subservient to Iran and Syria, then it’d have done the following after it has crushed the future militia and got the cooperation of the army:
1- Take control of the Saray, arrest Saniora and Ahmed Fatfat.
2- Raid the residences of Sa’d Hariri and Junblatt and arrest them and put everyone to a tribunal of its liking.
3- Install a new government with a shia’ PM (and those who don’t like it can bang their heads in the wall).
4- Revoke all government decrees regarding the Hariri tribunal and deport the UN investigative team.
5- Set free the four poor security officers who are rotting in jail without trial.
6- Elect a shia’ president. ( and those who don’t like it can bang their heads in the wall)
7- Invite the Iranian and the Syrian armies to establish permanent military bases in Lebanon.
8- Anyone who doesn’t like any of the above shall be silenced and thrown into prison.

Honest Patriot said:

Offended, you may have been sarcastic in your post but I, for one, believe that item (4) is on the agenda the moment HA is back in or becomes the government.
4- Revoke all government decrees regarding the Hariri tribunal and deport the UN investigative team.

SHAMI said:

Dr Joshua, many recent studies have proved that the Sunni community in Lebanon is a little more numerous than the Shia community but they remain very close and if you add the 500 000 Palestinians there will be a clear Sunni majority in Lebanon, even if they are not Lebanese nationals but we should take them into account as permanent or i hope long term inhabitants, I would prefer that our Palestinian brothers of Lebanon became Syrian citizens if they can not go back to their home Palestine.

Likely the Muslims in Lebanon are today 60% of Lebanon population, it’s important for me as Syrian Muslim that Lebanon remain a country with a christian character and we should be honest that what make Lebanon so different it’s this liberal westernized character.

Qifa Nabki said:

Another day, another opportunity for politicians to ruin our lives.

Let’s see if we can make a few predictions.

The government will NOT resign.

Gemayel, Geagea, and Jumblatt will continue issuing meaningless statements about coups and hands outstretched in dialogue. Hariri will reluctantly play along, while loudly ruling out the possibility of fitna.

Aoun will keep his head low.

Nasrallah will be magnanimous, as he always is, leaving the shamateh to his pet parakeets, Naim Qasim and Wiam Wahhab.

Washington will throw some more sanctions on Syria and underline Hizbullah’s name on the top 10 terrorist organizations, then use a yellow highlighter to make it seem really bold and striking, and then maybe erase it and write it out in all CAPS.

In short, we will limp along as usual. Let’s hope otherwise?

Mideast reels as hunger outgrows oil earnings

In spite of record oil prices, food security across the region has reached a precarious point, with cereals imports expected to reach $22.6bn this year - May-07

Reem Allaf has written an excellent satirical piece on Syrian's use of the Web.

Idaf responds to Reem's article:

You should try to coordinate with these people for the embassies. It's the core of an e-government project in Syria. Most official information on government applications are listed here (with lots of forms to download and contacts to government entities):

http://www.e.sy/

http://www.e.sy/

This is a project under the Syrian Computer Society's e-government portal project (http://www.esyria.sy) that was first initiated in a jointly supported conference last year by the EU & the Syrian government. This year's e-Government Conference in Syria is scheduled next month. More information here for those interested: http://www.esyria.org/en/

http://www.esyria.sy) that was first initiated in a jointly supported conference last year by the EU & the Syrian government. This year's e-Government Conference in Syria is scheduled next month. More information here for those interested: http://www.esyria.org/en/A muhafaza in Syria now has its own official portal (they are linked from the portal above). Following up on Rime Allaf’s excellent article posted in the comments section above, the official portal of Al-Qunaytra governate (http://www.equnaytra.sy/) lists the following 3 websites on the Golan:

- The http://www.golan-gov.org.sy/"rel="nofollow" official Syrian website for Golan (Arabic, English and French)

- A community website for http://www.golan67.com/"rel="nofollow" Syrians living under occupation in the Golan (managed from the occupied Golan)

- The website of the <a>Committee for Defense of Syrians imprisoned by Israel in the Golan</a>

Hezbollah began withdrawing gunmen from Beirut on Saturday and handed control of the streets to the Lebanese army, after seizing much of the city in gun battles with supporters of the U.S.-backed government.

The government backed down on its earlier demands in exchange for Hizbullah's withdrawal. Siniora has promised that the government will not fire the Shiite director of the airport and will not dismantle Hizbullah's secure communications network so that it would become vulnerable to Israeli depredations. In essence, the government has retracted the demands that provoked Hizbullah into taking Sunni Beirut.

The spin has begun. Robert Worth in his article for the NY Times reports that "some political analysts here say they believe that the government may have won a moral victory by abstaining from large-scale violence in response to Hezbollah’s aggression. Some government leaders were already accusing the Shiite group of betraying its promise to use its weapons only against Israel."

The pro-government analysts, of course, are putting the best face on the governments missteps by calling it a moral victory. Jumblatt may be taking some satisfaction in the government's predicament. He provoked the crisis with his accusations that Hizbullah was behind the string of assassinations in Beirut over the last three years and therefore had to dismantle its secure communications network, which, he conjectured, had been used to plan the various killings.

By pulling back from the city it so easily conquered and by turning over its strategic centers to the Lebanese army, Hizbullah has been gracious in victory.

It has not pressed its superior hand, putting paid to the irresponsible claim that Hizbullah wants to impose an Iranian-style, Islamic mullocracy on Lebanon's Christians and Sunnis. On the contrary, it can be argued, Hizbullah is trying to broker the type of power-sharing government that the US would only be too eager to see emerge in divided Baghdad.

It is surprising to hear that Hizbullah is not demanding more in exchange for its withdrawal. It accepted to return to the "status quo ante" on rather easy terms. The next few days will clarify whether it is not demanding more.

In the past the opposition insisted on a third of the seats in cabinet; it also hoped to push through favorable reforms to the voting law.

Hizbullah has demonstrated that it can move swiftly and decisively. It has also demonstrated that it can game out its actions and is prepared for its end-game, something that others in the region seldom seem to do. Playing out the various scenarios before launching into action is a virtue that the US and its allies, with all their resources, are capable of doing well. I have participated in several war games in Washington; they are a frequent and valuable tool on the Potomac. But if Washington didn't try to dissuade the Siniora government from challenging Hizbullah's communications system and then advised Hariri to make the several demands he did for retracting the order - the most important of which was the immediate appointment of Suleiman as President — Washington was clearly not heeding the advice of its best people. This is a recurring characteristic of the Bush administration.

Hizbullah has done what it said it would do - not more, nor less. The constant grinding among the religious communities is making Lebanon more sectarian with each new conflict. Fewer Sunnis than ever will be able side with Shiites and vice-versa. The Shiites will become ever more convinced that they cannot give up their arms without first getting constitutional guarantees that they will get their fare share of representation. As things stand today, the Shiites allocated 21% of parliamentary seats even though they may represent close to 40% of Lebanon's population. This is a lingering institutional imbalance left over from Lebanon's colonial legacy, when Shiites were discounted politically as poor sheepherders and dirt farmers. The notion that Lebanon can achieve stability before these sectarian imbalances are rectified is not a sound one.

The following links are interesting:

Lebanon does not want another war. Does it?
Despite everything that has happened in the past few days, the people have no appetite for yet more civil conflict
By Robert Fisk in Beirut
Sunday, 11 May 2008

I went to cover a demonstration in West Beirut yesterday morning – yes, please note the capital W on "West" – and then I get a text from a Lebanese woman on my mobile phone, asking if she will have to wear a veil when she returns to Lebanon. How do I reply? That the restaurants are still open? That you can still drink wine with your dinner?

That is the problem. For the war in West Beirut is not about religion. It is about the political legitimacy of the Lebanese government and its "pro-American" support (the latter an essential adjective to any US news agency report), which Iran understandably challenges.

Powerless US falls back on 'remote-control' diplomacy for Lebanon

Unable to pressure Syria or Iran into halting Hezbollah's offensive in Lebanon against US-backed leader Fuad Siniora, the United States has opted for "remote-control" diplomacy using its allies.

The Washington Post reported that the United States was pleased with the intervention of Russia and Turkey, which warned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that they would hold him responsible for Hezbollah's actions.

Since Israel's war against Hezbollah that ravaged Lebanon in 2006 — a war that the secretary of state had supported — Rice has not set foot back on Lebanese soil where her unpopularity undermined the Siniora government.

Publicly, the United States settled for repeating its "unswerving support" for Siniora.

Hizballah humiliates March 14, Lebanon enters new phase by Antoun Issa

Reports also emerged that Hizballah and Amal fighters surrounded the Clemenceau home of PSP Druze leader, Walid Jumblatt, as well as his security centres in the Chouf mountains. Nasrallah openly and sternly singled out Jumblatt in his press conference during the week, accusing him of playing lord to the Siniora government and attempting to spark a Sunni-Shi'ite conflict. Jumblatt conceded that Hizballah's military might is unrivalled in Lebanon, and warned the Shi'ite group that it can't impose its will on the rest of the country.

But will Hizballah impose its will?

Jihad Makdissi BBC on Lebanon
 

The al-Maliki government and the Sadrists pulled back from the brink in Sadr City on Saturday. PM Nuri al-Maliki had demanded that the Mahdi Army militia that serves as the Sadrist paramilitary give up its arms and dissolve itself. The compromise simply states that the Iraqi security forces would be allowed in to Sadr City to search for suspected medium and heavy weapons. The implication is that the Mahdi Army may continue to exist and may keep its light weapons (e.g. AK-47s), though it has to pledge not to walk with them in public.

The siege of Sadr City is to be lifted and the major roads in and out of it are to be unblocked, according to the agreement.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the agreement stipulates that the government should have a court order to come into Sadr City. Arrests of rogue commanders had to to be based on warrants and not just 'indiscriminate.' There is nothing in the agreement about the Mahdi Army disarming altogether, as Nuri Al-Maliki initially demanded.

Reading news about Iraq is like watching Bill Murray's 'Groundhog Day' in which you have to live through the same day over and over again. So the US and Iraqi governments have announced a new campaign against Sunni radicals in Ninevah province, especially Mosul. Take a look at this article, published late last January: "Thousands of Iraqi army soldiers reached the northern city of Mosul on Sunday in preparation for what the government said would be a major offensive there against Al-Qaeda in Iraq, along with other Sunni militants."

You have a sinking feeling that al-Maliki is recycling old announcements in a futile attempt to distract the public from his climb-down in Sadr City. Al-Maliki left for Mosul Saturday along with a few cabinet members and close advisers. Curfews have been announced in some Mosul neighborhoods.

Ninevah governor Duraid Kashmula admitted to Al-Hayat that Mosul "has come to dominated by the leaders of al-Qaeda as a result of the delay in the military operation in the city."

What??! Mosul is Iraq's second largest city at 1.7 million, and it is under the control of "al-Qaeda"? How long has this been the case? All this time? While the US press was reveling in the "calm" in the country?

Joel Brinkley points out that in the first four months of 2008, the Iraq trend lines are going the wrong way again. Worse, the Iraqi occupation is generating a wave of terrorism in the Middle East as trained insurgents return home from Iraq:

' In Morocco last year, "a series of suicide bombs shattered the relative lull in terrorist violence" over the previous five years, the report said. "Extremist veterans returning from Iraq" were training inexperienced insurgent fighters, who then carried out bloody attacks in Casablanca and other cities. King Mohamed VI observed that security in his corner of the Middle East is now "linked to the security of the region."

In neighboring Algeria, insurgents "used propaganda based on the call to fight in Iraq as a hook to recruit young people, many of whom never made it to Iraq but were redirected" to local insurgent cells instead. They carried out "high-profile terrorist attacks throughout the country." . .

Gen. Mansour al-Turki, Saudi Arabia's Interior Ministry spokesman, once told me that Saudi militants "wanted to spread their war against the United States and found that doing this was easier in their own country." He drew this conclusion, he said, from interviews with insurgents he had arrested. "The invasion of Iraq enabled them to convince others in the country to share their goals. For that reason, the invasion was very important to them." The terror report described similar patterns in Jordan, Syria, Kuwait, Yemen and elsewhere. '

As Brinkley points out, the clear evidence of the falsehood of the Pentagon talking points about a "calm Iraq" (based on what was going on in Novemenber and December!) doesn't prevent them from being conveyed unexamined right to the front page.

The Turkish military claimed to have killed 17 Kurdish guerrillas of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) in air strikes on eastern Turkey near Iraq on Saturday.

Iraq's war widows struggle to keep young families alive.

An eyewitness account of recent events in South Lebanon.

Lebanon has things so backwards. Its political parties are fighting military battles and its army is negotiating a political settlement.



New NYT blog in Arabic, this one on Saudi youth.

AFP reports that on Friday an aide to junior cleric Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr lashed out at Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani over his silence at the attacks on Sadr City (a Shiite slum) by the US and the government of PM Nuri al-Maliki:
' "We are surprised by the silence in Najaf where the highest Shiite religious authority is based," Sheikh Sattar Battat said, referring to Sistani.

"For 50 days Sadr City is being bombed ... Children, women and old people are being killed by all kinds of US weapons, and Najaf remains silent," he told the faithful at the weekly Friday prayers in Sadr City, Sadr's stronghold. Battat said the Sadr movement has not seen any "reaction or fatwa (religious decree) from Najaf" criticising the government assault on Shiite fighters in Sadr City. '

Also, Sheikh Abd al-Hadi al-Muhammadawi said in his sermon at the Kufa mosque that the shedding of blood by the Occupation forces through air strikes on the people must cease. He said it was bizarre that these air strikes should take place with the acquiescence of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. "This is something that never was done by any dictator in the world."

The USG Open Source Center analyzes the Lebanese press on the crisis between the Seniora government and Hizbullah, suggesting that despite their harsh words, they have left wiggle room for a resolution.

OSC Report: Lebanon -- Both Sides Take Tough Line, Leave Room To Maneuver
Lebanon -- OSC Report
Friday, May 9, 2008 . . .

Lebanon -- Government, Opposition Take Tough Line on Crisis While Preserving Room To Maneuver; Army Seeks Neutral Role

Both opposition and government figures are maintaining tough public positions in their dispute over Hizballah's private landline telephone network. At the same time, despite continuing violent confrontations in Beirut between opposition and pro-government elements, both sides appear to be leaving themselves room for further political maneuvering. The Lebanese Army, meanwhile, is seeking to stay out of the dispute and remain neutral while maintaining its status as the guardian of national unity.

The crisis erupted after a 6 May decision by the Council of Ministers, led by Prime Minister Fuad Siniora, calling Hizballah's private telephone network "illegal" and "an aggression on the State's authority," thereby denying Hizballah's right to maintain the network as part of its legitimate "resistance" tool against Israel. The government vowed to launch legal action against the network. On 8 May, unrelated labor protests in Beirut turned into violent demonstrations against the government. Nasrallah Vows Defiance

In a news conference on 8 May, Hizballah Secretary General Hasan Nasrallah rejected the government's demands and threatened a violent response if the government acted against Hizballah's telephone network.

Nasrallah declared: "We have the right to defend ourselves," and "we will cut off the hand" of anyone threatening to take away Hizballah's "resistance weapons regardless of the person it belongs to...we will not be lenient with anyone no matter who he is" (Al-Manar TV, 8 May).

Free Patriotic Movement leader and Hizballah ally Michel Awn echoed Nasrallah's comments by stating that "it is very serious to endanger the security of the resistance during operations" and by demanding that "all parties reverse the government's decisions" (OTV, 8 May). In subsequent statements, Hizballah allies Former Minister Sulayman Franjiyah (The Daily Star, 9 May) and leader of the Lebanese Unification Party Wi'am Wahhab reiterated Nasrallah's sentiments (Now Lebanon, 9 May).

Notwithstanding his threats, Nasrallah left the door open for a negotiated resolution.

Nasrallah stated: "There are two hands: one is outstretched for dialogue based on canceling the unfair decisions" and "the path to a solution is clear and open" (Al-Manar TV, 8 May).

He asserted his continued respect for existing institutions, in particular the Lebanese Army: "We are raising the slogan of partnership between the opposition and pro-government forces...the Army constitutes a genuine national guarantee" (Al-Manar TV, 8 May). Pro-Government Response

Pro-government leaders were equally adamant in asserting the primacy of state authority.

A 9 May statement made by Lebanese Forces leader Samir Ja'ja on behalf of the pro-government March 14 Forces declared that "what happened in Beirut, its periphery, and the International Airport is an armed coup carried out by Hizballah" and called on the Siniora-led government "to hold firmly to this independent position" (LBC, 9 May).

Communications Minister Marwan Hamadah, in an interview with the Pan-Arab television channel Al-Arabiyah, stated that "we will never go back on our decision" and that "we intend to defend what remains of the sovereignty of the Lebanese state" (8 May).

Nonetheless, pro-government also alluded to the possibility of a political resolution.

Prominent 14 March Forces leader and head of the Future Movement Sa'd al-Hariri, in a news conference following that of Nasrallah's on 8 May, upheld the government's position on Hizballah's network while affirming: "We are not saying...that we want to stop protecting the resistance;" rather, "we are taking decisions to protect the state" (Future TV).

Hamadah, in his Al-Arabiyah interview, insisted that he "is not saying that we will dismantle the network by force tomorrow but that this is the right of the Lebanese state...the judiciary will pursue the case...we are not seeking a civil war." Lebanese Army Tries To Remain Neutral

In the face of continued street clashes in Beirut, the Lebanese Army has sought to remain above the dispute and preserve its status as a guardian of national unity.

In a statement on 8 May, the Army Command called on all parties to find solutions to save Lebanon from the deadlock, adding that "the Lebanese Army puts itself at the disposal of all groups to help find these solutions." The Army's statement warned parties against "abandoning dialogue and insisting on positions" (Al-Manar TV).

In a 9 May interview with Al-Arabiyah TV, Minister of Youth and Sport Ahmad Fatfat confirmed that the Lebanese Army has deployed troops to protect cabinet offices from street violence.

The war is over. Hizbullah has taken control of West Beirut in one day of fighting, during which Hariri's amateur and untested militia proved no match for the highly trained and war hardened Hizbullah fighters.

The outcome of this showdown was completely predictable. Anyone who expected the Lebanese Army to take on Hizbullah on behalf of the Sunni leaders of Beirut was dreaming.

It appears that the military, realizing the lopsided distribution of power, has sided with Hizbullah. Hizbullah has been turning over the strategic centers to Lebanese military elements as soon as it captures them. The military hs assumed control of the al-Mustaqbal offices.

Only yesterday, I argued that Washington had to be coordinating with Jumblatt and March 14th forces. I could not believe that Jumblatt's and the government’s efforts to dismantle Hizbullah's secure communications network was anything but a calculated effort to force a confrontation.

Qifa Nabki said I was wrong. He proposed that Jumblatt had gone of half-cocked and was dragging Hariri and Siniora into a confrontation that no one was prepared for, least of all Washington and the West. I could not believe that the pro-Western alliance would be so foolish and disorganized. When Ambassador Feltman was in Beirut, this would not have happened. He was in constant motion, conferring with the March 14 forces and brow beating Hizbullah and Aoun. One may have objected to his constant interference and hectoring, but there was little room for the lack of coordination between the US and March 14 leaders.

Now I am inclined to believe that March 14 was dragged along by rash leadership. It is hard to believe Washington would be so foolish. There will be those who believe this is part of a larger US and Israeli plan to sucker Hizbullah into overreaching only to provide justification for a second Israeli attack. Neither the governments in Washington or Jerusalem are in any clear-minded state to be thinking with such Machiavellian calculation.

I just received this note from Ehsani:

Dear Dr. Landis,

I just got off the phone with my business partner, who was staying at the Phoenicia Hotel in Beirut. Below is a summary of what he told me:

After heavy gunfire in the early hours of the morning, the hotel management advised its residents to vacate the hotel as it could not guarantee their safety. The rumor was that the HA forces might occupy the Saraya, the main government building, next door. The hotel itself was the recent spot for March 14th gatherings. Thus the hotel management was worried that HA could be planning to take over the Phoenicia itself.

At 6:15 am, my friend was evacuated with his family. Close friends guaranteed his safe passage to an apartment he owns in the Eastern (Christian) section of the city. As he left the Phoenicia, he described the scene outside as a "war zone".

The HA forces seemed to have total control of the situation on the ground. He described them to be "incredibly sophisticated" and organized as they moved through the streets.

Things could not be more different on the Eastern side of the city, where normalcy prevails. Reaching his apartment made him comfortable enough to feel like "there is nothing going on".

Normalcy is also returning to the Western or Muslim side of the city occupied by Hizbullah. The reason for this is that HA has been completely successful in overwhelming opposition forces. The other side was not even close to matching them. They were overrun with such ease that HA can see no resistance in sight.

What was March 14th thinking? What is the U.S. going to do? The French Foreign Minister states that his country will not sit idly by and watch the events unfold. But what is France going to do? Send its forces into Lebanon? Are the Americans prepared to do the same?

What is likely to happen is that the White house and Condi will condemn the latest events and claim that HA is a terrorist organization that took over the democratically elected government by force. Great, like that is really going to scare HA and convince them to retreat.

Particularly noteworthy has been the behavior of the Lebanese army. HA takes over a building and seems to turn it over to an army unit that follows behind the Shiite party. This is very odd indeed. The army seems to resemble a U.N. force that watches over buildings and streets after they have been overrun by a sovereign military force.

What the future holds, no one can say. This round overwhelmingly and devastatingly belongs to HA and its supporters. Jumblat and Hariri Junior were crushed.

On late Friday, the Lebanese army moved into some neighborhoods that had been taken during the day by the Hizbullah militia.

Hizbullah routed Sunni militiamen loyal to Saad Hariri and set fire to the offices of al-Mustaqbal newspaper, his press outlet. (The Lebanese Army declined to intervene, the same mistake it made in 1975).

Likewise, the Futur or Mustaqbal television station is off the air after employees fled for "security reasons." But the fighting hasn't just been between Sunni and Shiite. There has been other ethnic violence, too. Members of the Syrian National Socialist Party (probably mostly Eastern Orthodox Christians) attacked the Mustaqbal archives building. (SNSP is pro-Syrian and is allied with Hizbullah). In Tripoli pro-Hariri and anti-Hariri Sunnis clashed. (Some Sunnis up there are loyal to the rival Karami family while others belong to the Baath Party of Lebanon-- both clashed with the Hariri forces).

Liz Sly of the Chicago Tribune is a veteran correspondent in Beirut and her observations are very valuable. She points to the collapse of the red line earlier drawn by Hassan Nasrallah whereby his militia would never attack other Lebanese.

Lebanon is on the brink of civil war.

AFP reports, "25 killed as Rockets Shatter Basra Calm." Shiite guerrillas fired a barrage of rockets at the British base out at the airport in Basra, killing two civilians. There was retaliatory fighting in Basra that left more dead.

Tina Susman of the LAT has some fun with the Bush administration's fixation on Iran as a source of weapons and trouble in Iraq. She notes a major embarrassment last week when a cache of supposedly Iranian weapons seized in the Shiite holy city of Karbala turned out to be no such thing. The US military had just taken the word for it of local Karbala police. She says that this week when the Pentagon gave its overview of captured weapons, all of a sudden there was no mention of Iran at all.

The Iraqi military has warned civilians to leave the vast slum of Sadr City, apparently in preparation for a massive government assault on the Mahdi Army militia based there. Since slum dwellers notoriously lack the means to leave their slums, this call seems more likely to be for the sake of appearances than a realistic expectation. When thousands are massacred in the course of a military attack on a densely packed civilian area, the authorities will be able to say that they gave fair warning. Although the US demonizes the Mahdi Army, Many Sadr City residents view it as in part a charitable organization, and they also are often grateful for the security it provides. It is not as if the federal government is providing security.

Saddam Hussein was the Iraqi leader who invented the technique for the modern Iraqi state of ethnically cleansing rebellious populations as a way of making his rule stick. He did it to the Marsh Arabs in the south and also to Kurds in the north. The US has already either conducted or allowed ethnic cleansing in Falluja and West Baghdad. It now seems set to empty out the east of the capital.

Apparently the fractious, RPG-wielding slum dwellers are getting in the way of the planned Green Zone golf course, so they have to be removed.

You know some British colonial administrators were still planning new cricket fields in India in 1946.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the Iraqi parliament took up the conflict between PM Nuri al-Maliki and the Sadr Movement and President Jalal Talabani's initiative to resolve it. At the same time, the two sides seemed to get farther apart, with al-Maliki continuing to insist on the disarming of the Mahdi Army militia. Talabani's plan called for a first step of the militiamen pledging not to carry arms in public in Baghdad and troubled areas in the south. The Talabani plan may soon be voted on by parliament, but it is opposed by the Sadr Bloc of MPs.

Al-Hayat also reports on a planned meeting of al-Maliki with Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi of the Iraqi Islamic Party, a component of the (Sunni fundamentalist) Iraqi Accord Front. Al-Hashimi is said to be set to rejoin the government. The proposed list of cabinet members from the IAF has not been accepted by al-Maliki. Dissent has broken out, however, in the Dialogue Council of Khalaf al-`Ulyan, one of the three components of the Iraqi Accord Front.

McClatchy reports political violence for Thursday.

' Baghdad

1 Katyusha rocket slammed into the Green Zone at 9 am Thursday. No casualties were reported.

2 Katyusha rockets slammed into the street next to al-Nasr cinema, Sadoon Street, central Baghdad killing 2 civilians, injuring 2 others and causing material damage to several civilian cars.

A roadside bomb exploded in Humat al-Watan intersection near Shaab stadium, east Baghdad. It targeted an Iraqi Army patrol injuring 5 servicemen.

An adhesive IED in a Kia minibus exploded killing 1 civilian, severely injuring 5 others. The incident took place in Zayuna neighbourhood, near the traffic fly over at around 3 pm Thursday.

A roadside bomb exploded behind the National Theatre in Karrada, central Baghdad injuring 3 civilians.

A parked car bomb exploded targeting a police patrol in Mansour neighbourhood, west Baghdad, near Samad restaurant in Rowad intersection at 5 pm Thursday. The explosion killed 3 policemen and 4 civilians and injured 2 policemen and 17 civilians amongst whom were 2 women and 1 child. The location is a central commercial centre and the explosion resulted in burning 4 civilian cars completely as well as the police vehicle in addition to extensive material damages to 10 stores and completely destroying the restaurant.

A roadside bomb exploded in Jihad neighbourhood, near Mohammed Rasool Allah Mosque at 7 pm injuring 7 civilians.

4 unidentified bodies were found in Baghdad today by Iraqi Police. 1 in Nahdha; 1 in Dola’I and 2 in Abu Disheer.

Salahuddin

Suicide bomber wearing an explosive belt detonated targeting mulla Nathim al-Juboor, head of Dhuluiayah Sahwa, a US supported militia, in Khazraj area, 5 km to the north of the town of Dhuluiayah. The mulla was in a motorcade with the Chief of Police and the District Commissioner of Dhuluiyah on a tour of reconstruction projects. This is the second assassination attempt he survives with only superficial injuries.

Basra

Violent clashes broke out between the security forces and gunmen in al-Askari neighbourhood, Zubair district 35 km t the west of Basra city after many Katyusha rockets were fired targeting a Notional Police camp in Zubair. The fighting continues and no casualties report was available at time of publication.'

Thanks to http://mideastwire.com we have this translation:

On May 8, the leader of Hezbollah Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah spoke at a press conference and said, in part: "…Certainly, the topic of this news conference, the first since the end of July war, is the important and serious developments which have taken place on the Lebanese arena in the past days. First of all, after the authority team's decision in that dark night, a completely new stage started in Lebanon. To us, that session is like 14 February 2005; that is, the earthquake which made Lebanon enter a completely new stage with the martyrdom of Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri. We are entering a completely new stage. Lebanon after that gloomy session is different from Lebanon that used to exist before that session. The authority team should know that it has made Lebanon face a totally new situation, given the seriousness, backgrounds, and dimensions of these decisions."

"…In the July war, our most important point of strength was the command and control, thanks to the fact that communication between the leadership and the various commanders and field fighters was secured. The enemy has admitted to this….When we have a look at the Winograd report today, we find that the most important recommendation in the report was the need to eliminate Hezbollah's command and control system in which telecommunications play a decisive role."

"…I would like to remind that when the ominous four-way alliance was forged, this network was in place. They did not consider it then an infringement on sovereignty, law, and public funds. When we entered the government together and a policy statement was issued about the resistance and its weapons - and this is part of its weapons - this wire telecommunications network was not considered an infringement on sovereignty, law, and public funds. Now and since the four-way alliance has become a mere dream, this angered some members of the authority team. I say to them that this alliance a mere dream and that they will not see it neither in this life nor in the hereafter.

"…The officers said that the atmosphere was good and that things were fine. They, however, said that they had a request - the Lebanese will be amazed when they hear this. They said: If you want us to agree with you and forget about the issue of the wire telecommunications network, then can you remove the sit-in in central Beirut? They sought a bargain. Remove the sit-in in central Beirut and we will forget about the wire network of the resistance.

"Mr Walid Junblatt, head of the government. After all this experience, I realized that we should not say that this is Fu'ad Sanyurah's government. Fu'ad Sanyurah is a poor man, who is an employee of Walid Junblatt. When Walid Junblatt wants to sack an officer, the employees sack the officer. Naturally, he is an employee of Condoleezza Rice."

"… The purpose of this decision is to get rid of the most important element that protects the resistance's leadership, cadres, and infrastructure. It also seeks to expose the resistance as a prelude to assassinations and killing, and the destruction of its infrastructure.

"…we believe that a war has started and it is our duty to defend our arms, resistance, and the legitimacy of this resistance… The issue is that The Beirut Airport is meant to be turned into a base for the FBI, CIA, and the Israeli Mossad… [what is intended is to replace Shuqayr, the airport security director] with a CIA and FBI employee. This is the whole airport story.

"…[The solution is] annulling the illegitimate decisions of the illegitimate government of Walid Junblatt, and accepting the invitation by Nabih Birri, speaker of the Lebanese Chamber of Deputies, to the national dialogue table."

"….[Answer press questions Nasrallah says, in part:] In the areas where hand grenades were hurled on us or we were fired at, we fired back. This should be very clear. We have not gone to occupy, as some people call for, or to control. If we want to occupy, the story would have been over long time ago. We do not want to attack or launch an aggression on anyone, but we do not allow anyone to launch an aggression on us.

"…[As for UNIFIL] These forces are present in the south, and we deal with them positively. We cooperate with them and they cooperate with us, even in face of any dangers these forces may encounter.

"…[We hope] the brothers in the Saudi Kingdom would not repeat the mistake they made at the beginning of the July war, which they were then forced to correct. They should not be a party in an internal issue and should act in a way that shows that they are concerned about the country and its security and stability.

"…We do not want to carry out a coup, and we do not target groups, sects, or political forces."

"… I said that there are guarantees. We constitute a guarantee. Our allies constitute a guarantee - Hezbollah and Amal Movement, which are directly targeted these days… The dream of Walid Junblatt is to have a Shi'i-Sunni sedition. I hope that they will not help him to realize this dream. We will not help realize this dream.

"…First of all, I learned that the Saudi ambassador to Lebanon called up the Iranian ambassador… [the former said] that Saudi Arabia and Iran want to cooperate so that the situation in Lebanon would not exacerbate. I told him that this is no problem. The solution to the issue is very easy, which is what I have just said. They made a decision. Let them freeze the decision and things will go back the way they were. No need for anyone to fear from anything. We have no ill intention, and we did not harbour an ill will. The Saudi ambassador answered back quickly saying this is unlikely and it is very difficult for them to backtrack on this decision. However, we will see what we will do. As far as I am concerned, this is what happened and this is the scope of the matter

"….First of all, there is no civil war. There should be no exaggeration in depicting the current situation… media outlets yesterday exaggerated when reporting about some problems that took place here and there. The war that I talked about is the one that the others wanted and imposed. We do not want a war with anyone.

"… I express thanks and appreciation to every one who respects me in the Arab and Islamic world… I am not asking anyone to champion me. I have not made a call for help, I am not asking anyone to champion me, and I have not asked for intervention to defend us.

"…If you insist on war, then our reactions will be unpredictable… Are we going to take responsibility for the consequences? Yes, we are ready to take the responsibility for the consequences. We are responsible people. We know what we are doing, and we know where we are standing. We are aware of the size of the conspiracy, scheme, and challenge. We know what we have, and we are ready to take responsibility for all consequences…"

Will the latest US and March 14 provocation break Hizbullah or Lebanon? March 14 is targeting Hizbullah's communications system while Washington escalates pressure on Syria.

Here are some headlines:

(Time: Butters) Is This the Start of the Next Lebanese Civil War?

Nick Blanford "Cell Phone Civil War"

BBC: The leader of Hezbollah has said the Lebanese government's decision to close down its private telecommunications network was a "declaration of war".

(Bloomberg: Derhally) Hezbollah and opposition supporters took to the streets a day after the Lebanese government said it was launching a judicial probe into a telecommunication network which the Shiite movement had set up across the country with the alleged help of Iran. "It's completely illegal — it covers the whole country in fiber optics,'' Hamadeh said. “They have created an Iran telecom all over the country. We discovered they were making ducts and trenches and told them to remove it from sensitive areas where people don't agree to be spied on. They answered that if you touch this we will consider it an act of aggression and threatened four ministers and the prime minister.''

(AP) The clashes followed a defiant speech by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who said his Iranian-backed militant organization would respond with force to any attacks. "Those who try to arrest us, we will arrest them," he said. "Those who shoot at us, we will shoot at them. The hand raised against us, we will cut it off." It was the second day of fighting that has turned some city neighborhoods into battlegrounds and spilled over to other parts of the country.

Here are video posts of the Nasrallah speech: here or here. (Thanks HP) 

[Comment by Landis] It became clear to to the Eliott Abrams crowd in Washington that the Bush administration's Lebanon policy was failing some months ago. This began to became clear when the Lebanese opposition stood firm on blocking the appointment of a president by the March 14th coalition. It became indisputable when the US and March 14th could not pressure the opposition to accept the Michel Suleiman presidential compromise. The opposition felt confident enough to demand a blocking third in any future cabinet and a say in forming governments. Ambassador Feltmen warned of this weakness at Brookings when he returned from his ambassadorship in Lebanon.

David Schenker, a fellow with WINEP, summed up this assessment in his Sept. 2007 assessment of the situation: losing traction against Syria, shortly after the Israeli bombing of Syria's alleged nuclear reactor.

As information begins to emerge about the extent of North Korean-Syrian ties, Washington will have another opportunity to focus the international community on the continuing dangers posed by the Asad regime. The UN’s Hariri tribunal will add to the pressure on the regime, but that alone will not suffice. To stem Syria’s reacceptance into the international community, Washington needs to convince its European and Arab — particularly Gulf — allies to freeze their engagement with Damascus. It should also exclude Syria from the Arab-Israeli peace conference scheduled to take place this November.

With Israeli-Syrian tensions rising and the pro-Western Lebanese government on a precipice, renewed political and economic pressure on Damascus is vital. In the absence of effective measures, the Asad regime will continue to undermine Washington’s hopes for the region.

Renewed political and economic pressure on Damascus was forthcoming with added sanctions against a number of Syrians linked to President Asad, the position of US war ships off the coast of Lebanon, the congressional hearing on the North Korean - Syria Connection, the pressuring of international firms not to do business in Syria, and Israeli war exercises along the Lebanon and Syria boarders. When Syria leaked that Israel was sounding it out on the terms of Golan deal, Secretary Rice was quick to dash any hopes a deal, declaring that this was not the time to engage Syria. Yesterday, President Bush renewed economic sanctions on Syria.

Two days ago Ambassador Imad Moustapha flew off to Damascus after meeting with Jeffery Feltman

Laura Rosen, at MoJo has this to say about it from "a Washington hand:"

Read the End Game in Beirut? by Col. Lang. He ties Cheney's latest Middle East visit to this escalation.

"The decisions (of the government) are tantamount to a declaration of war and the start of a war … on behalf of the United States and Israel," a defiant Nasrallah said at a rare press conference via video link.

On Tuesday, the government launched a probe into a communications network Hezbollah has set up in Lebanon and reassigned the head of airport security over his alleged links to Hezbollah."  AFP

Dr. Shuaibeh, sent out this email from Damascus, claiming that the Siniora government had dispatched detailed plans of Hizbullah's communications network to the UN, from where it was immediately handed to the Israelis. He claims that Israeli military assessments agree that in order to defeat Hizbullah in a second round, Israel needs to knock out Hizbullah's secret communications network, which it failed to damage in 2006.

من سلم خرائط شبكة إتصالات المقاومة إلى أسرائيل  السنيورة أرسلها للأمم المتحدة وإسرائيل حصلت على نسخة منها على الفور

شبكة الإتصالات التابعة لحزب الله أصبحت خريطة إنتشارها بتفاصيلها كافة في يد الإسرائيليين لأن السيد مروان حمادة وبموافقة السنيورة أرسل نسخا عنها للأمم المتحدة

مروان حمادة وبموافقة السنيورة أرسل نسخا عنها للأمم المتحدة

 مركز المعطيات والدراسات الاستراتيجية بدمشق

نشرت وكالة أخبار مونتريال نقلا عن الزميل خضر عواركة الكاتب اللبناني واسع الإطلاع المقيم في كندا تقريرا خطيرا عن دراسة إسرائيلية موثقة نشرت الوكالة صورة عنها ورابطا لموقع مركز الدراسات الإسرائيلي الذي حررها وفي التقرير كلام خطير جدا عن دور الحكومة اللبنانية في خدمة إسرائيل بعلمها أم بعدمه. إذ يقول الزميل عواركة نقلا عن الدراسة بأن واحدا من أسباب نصر تموز الرئيسية هو وجود شبكة إتصالات أرضية لدى حزب الله مكنت قيادته من السيطرة على المعارك في كل مراحل الحرب دون تعريضها للتنصت.

 الدراسة الإسرائيلية كما ظهرت فقرات منها تقول بأن أي حرب جديدة بين حزب الله وإسرائيل لا يجب أن تشن قبل تدمير شبكة إتصالات حزب الله ويمكن القيام بذلك بحسب الدراسة عبر الضغوط الأميركية على أصدقائها اللبنانيين في حكومة السنيورة وما بناه حزب الله بسنوات يمكن تدميره عبر السنيورة بأسابيع.

الزميل عواركة نقل عن أحد أعضاء مجلس النواب في بلد غربي ممن يطلعون على تقارير سرية ديبلوماسية بأن شبكة الإتصالات التابعة لحزب الله أصبحت خريطة إنتشارها بتفاصيلها كافة في يد الإسرائيليين لأن السيد مروان حمادة وبموافقة السنيورة أرسل نسخا عنها للأمم المتحدة لكي يصدر مجلس الأمن قرارا جديدا يدين خرق المقاومة بالشبكة تلك للقرار 1701 و 1559 وفي الواقع يقول المصدر الكندي أن الشبكة وخرائطها صارت في يد إسرائيل.

Conclusion: Is this a show down? Probably not. It is an escalation. By taking on Hizbullah at the Beirut airport, Washington and Siniora undoubtedly beleived they were attacking it at its weakest point. The airport is a national institution. But Hizbullah has considerable resources at its disposal and will chose provocations of its own. Nasrallah has declared dismantling its assets at the airport as a "red Line

Israel's Golan talks with Syria, may have been designed to pry Syria away from Hizbullah while Washington tries to weaken the Lebanese opposition. My hunch is that Syria will not fall for this. It is keenly aware that if it allows Washington to successfully divide and rule, Damascus will be next.  Without a strong Hizbullah, Syria will lose the Golan Heights. The only reason Israel is willing to discuss giving back the Golan with Syria is in order to get Syria to cut weapon supplies to Hizbullah and to pry it away from Iran. Hizbullah will take a ding on this one, but Lebanon will be no closer to having a president or finding political compromise. Only dialogue and dealing can do that. By looking for a take down move, Washington will deepen Lebanon's agony

Violence in Lebanon
Courtesy al-Hayat

Update: CNN is reporting that the Lebanese military is reluctant to intervene in street fighting between pro-Hizbullah forces and supporters of the Seniora government. Aljazeera is also reporting that the Lebanese military has drawn back from flashpoints. It showed one clip of troops facing crowds of young men throwing stones, who were dispersed by tear gas. The overnight street fighting, which the Aljazeera correspondent said does not involve barricades but is rather fluid, was the worst seen in Beirut since the Civil War ended in 1989.

Hizbullah leader Nasrallah has just announced that he feels the Seniora government has declared war on his movement by denying them access to a network of electronic monitoring and surveillance based at the airport. (Apparently Hizbullah uses it for its struggle against Israel, but the government became concerned that they were also using it to track pro-government individuals).

A member of Saad Hariri's government on Aljazeera just said that Hizbullah had the opportunity to help elect a president (Gen. Michel Suleiman) who could have participated in the decision-making and would have been more sympathetic to Hizbullah, but they instead played the role of spoiler. The Lebanese parliament has been unable to elect a president, who by the unwritten national pact has to be a Maronite Catholic, for the past few months.

The Bush administration has been arming the Seniora government and encouraging it to take on the Hizbullah militia, which it sees as a major site of Iranian influence in the region.

From several hours ago:

First, the General Confederation of Labour Unions (CGTL) in Lebanon called a strike to protest the failure of the government to agree to a substantial rise in the minimum monthly wage. Then the strike turned violent, as the Hizbullah joined in. People closed off roads and set out burning tires. The airport was badly affected, stranding 200 passengers. Aljazeera says that the airport is closed on Thursday Arab satellite channels were showing streets crowded with Lebanese army and police, with staccatto machine gun bursts in the background. About 10 people were lightly wounded.

It isn't really clear what the relationship is between the labor unions and their strike for better wages, and the military confrontations with the strikers. [On Thursday pro-government forces said that Hizbullah had taken advantage of the strike to press its own agenda.]

I do know that on the other side, the Bush administration has worked hard to polarize Lebanese society and security, rather than working for a national unity government.